3 graphs show how the GOP loses the chance to keep the Senate

3 graphs show how the GOP loses the chance to keep the Senate

“The democratic chances of gaining control of the chamber have significantly improved (in the last nine months), “Nathan Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin write in Inside Elections. And in its latest rating update, The Cook Political Report says Democrats it is now a small favorite to get a majority in the senate

There are 35 Senate seats at stake this November, 12 of which are Democrats and 23 Republicans. This gives Republicans an inherent advantage. But since November last year, that strong Republican defense has been slowly eroding, opening up the possibility for Democrats to cover enough seats to gain a majority. The number of political states in The Solid Republican Report has been reduced from 13 to 10.

Democrats now have 47 seats in the Senate, including two independents who go caucus with them. To get a Senate majority, they would have to defend those twelve seats and pick up four more this November – or three, if former Democratic Vice President Joe Biden wins the White House and can send his vice president to serve as a vote. ‘tie. Unlike 2018, when Democrats defended the majority of seats, many of this year’s Senate elections are in states that voted for President Donald Trump and are seats defended by Republican senators.

Since November 2019, Republicans according to Cook’s forecast have advanced in Alabama and Mississippi very red, but have lost ground in nine more states. These include not only battle states like North Carolina and Arizona, but also Georgia, Montana and Kansas, which have relied on the GOP reliably for decades. Each seat knocked down by the prognosis presents a different path for Democrats to win the 16 races needed for a majority.

Cook determines his assessments by speaking with national and state sources, consulting public and private polls, and judging the quality of candidates and fundraising, said Jessica Taylor, Cook’s Senate editor Jessica Taylor. A race classified as “solid” means that it is not considered competitive nor is it likely to be contested. A “solid” race drops to “Probably” if that race gets an unusually strong opposition candidate or a vote closer than expected. And “Probably” becomes “Lean” if this race gets more and more competitive, but one part still holds an advantage.

Democrats will still have to defend a U.S. Senate seat in Alabama, which voted Democrat Doug Jones in the 2017 special election over Republican Roy Moore, an exceptionally flawed candidate. Democratic Sen. Gary Peters will also have to defend his seat in Michigan, a state of swing voting for Trump led by Republicans as a pick-me-up. Since November, Michigan’s rating of “Democratic Leans” hasn’t changed, but Jones’ career in Alabama has increased from “tossup” to “Republican Leans.”

Despite the GOP’s inherent advantages in this race, a number of events have not gone the way of the party this election year. Democrats operate strong candidates and manage to match or win funds over their rivals even in traditionally red states like Alaska, Montana and South Carolina. Montana, which Cook called a solid Republican last March, became a Tossup after its popular governor, Steve Bullock, won the Democratic primary. “(Bullock) was pretty much the only Democrat who could have put that race into play,” Taylor said.

Republican senators also can’t escape the unique circumstances of 2020. “In an election year, ballot elections are often driven by the top of the ballot, and that’s especially true with a president who has so much grip on their party, ”Taylor said.

Numbers of the president’s polls have drowned in recent months amid responses to the coronavirus pandemic and the Black Lives Matter movement, creating an increasingly toxic environment for any Republican candidate. In Georgia, for example, this year the two Republican senators are re-elected. Representing a state with a changing demographic and especially affected by the coronavirus, senators ’Cook indices have fallen from Republic likely to Leans Republican (Senator Kelly Loeffler) and Tossup (Senator David Perdue) since the pandemic began.

Two other major election forecasters have reached similar conclusions. Inside Elections and the Politics Center, Larry Sabato’s crystal ball, has reduced the number of Republican seats described as “solid” or “secure” over the past nine months.

While several red state ratings have weakened, a Democratic Senate acquisition is still based on Tossup and supports pro-Republican states that lean in favor. For Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer to have a chance of becoming the Senate majority leader, he will have to wait for the political climate not to boom between now and November with the same fervor as in recent months. .

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